Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
